Saturday, November 12, 2011

The Red Sox Offseason: Part 1

Now that we've all moved past last baseball season (or not), where do the Red Sox go from here?

For many, the answer is "somewhere else".  Theo is in Chicago. Terry Francona could go to St. Louis (or elsewhere). Jonathan Papelbon is headed to Philadelphia.

Ben Cherington is in as GM. Dale Sveum could be the next manager.  Daniel Bard is the presumptive closer.


I'm fine with all of this.  Or at least I can see how it all makes sense.  Regardless of how last season turned out, Theo and Terry were nearing the end of their time in Boston.  Theo was ready to move on to a new challenge.  Terry was burnt out.


Curt Young got off easy, being let go as pitching coach and returning to the Oakland A's.


Ben Cherington is the right man to take over as GM.  I'm coming to grips with the possibility that Dale Sveum could be the next manager.  Manager - Ok.  Third Base Coach - Never again.   The media consensus is that Sveum gets the job, with Gene Lamont as a candidate to return as bench coach. In Sveum, Sandy Alomar Jr, Pete Mackanin, Torey Lovullo, or Gene Lamont, the Red Sox will hire a fine manager.  

The Red Sox lose one of the greatest closers of all-time.


http://boondogsworld.phanfare.com/2262389_2445581#imageID=34594716


Jonathan Papelbon's exit was inevitable.  For years, he has wanted to set the market for closers, and the Red Sox would not be the team to oblige.  The extended him year-to-year, until that was no longer in their control.  Plus, the Sox have Daniel Bard as the leading candidate to replace Papelbon.  Bobby Jenks is having (or had) surgery.  There are a number of free agent closers available if the Sox choose to go in another direction, or add depth.

Papelbon was excellent during his years in Boston.  He was very important to the team, and one of the greatest closers of all time.  You never questioned his effort or intensity.  However, closers are the running backs of major league baseball.  They can have short shelf lives, are replaceable, and many teams use the position to control cost.  For the most part, if a pitcher were good enough or not defective in some way, they would be a front line starter because starters are far more valuable.  Papelbon's question, or defect, is his shoulder.  Otherwise, he should continue to dominate in Philadelphia.

Jason Varitek (also pictured) is one of my favorites, but like Jorge Posada in New York, it is time to move on.

I would give strong consideration to allowing David Ortiz to sign with another team.  I don't fully understand the baseball draft and free agent compensation, but a first round pick or two sound good to me. If David Ortiz returns, it will be one year or one year with an option.  I'd be fine with Ortiz returning, but if another team will over-pay (would be an AL team needing a DH), let him walk.

I would not give Kevin Youkilis a long term contract.  Consider trading him if the right deal presents itself.  I like Youk, but am concerned about injury and value over the long term.  To be a Red Sox for years to come, he would eventually have to replace David Ortiz as DH, because Adrian Gonzalez is the first baseman.  Will Middlebrooks is the heir-apparent at third base.  Youkilis is an excellent fielder, but the end of his career has DH written all over it.

Don't let Alfredo Aceves get away.  Consider adding him to the rotation.  Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Aceves, Free Agent Signing.  Let Erik Bedard walk.

Tim Wakefield is on a rolling option, meaning there is a one year option on his contract until it is not renewed.  He is still a valuable contributor, and if his back is healthy, he should return as a reliever and emergency starter.  Every pitching staff has injuries and needs guys to eat innings and make starts when there are injuries.  Wakefield still does that.  I'd like to see him pass Roger Clemens in the Red Sox record books, but that is second to performance.

John Lackey had Tommy John surgery, and I'll assume the Sox get no contribution from Daisuke Matsuzaka  in 2012.  Withhold judgment on Lackey (and his absurd contract) until seeing how he returns from surgery in 2013.


The Red Sox exercised a one year option on Marco Scutaro.  He is a short term solution until Jose Iglesias arrives full-time or is traded.  I'm not a big supporter of Jose Reyes.  Bring back Jed Lowrie.


So long JD Drew.  I prefer to remember the 2007 post-season, instead of the injuries, or the huge contract that I did not like.

That means the Red Sox need a right fielder.  I would stay away from Carlos Beltran.  He would be a significant signing for someone who on the downside of his career and is a real injury risk.  Grady Sizemore could be an option, depending on his health and  if he would take one year with incentives.  Josh Redick and Ryan Kalish continue to be options.

Let's hope Carl Crawford returns to form because he is our left fielder.

Whether there are full scale changes, or most of the team returns in 2012, the expectation should be the same; win the World Series.  Remember, two teams finished 90-72 in 2011: The Red Sox and the World Champion St. Louis Cardinals.

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