It took me all day to decide what to do for today's Patriots - Broncos game, but I ended up making the simplest choice, which is to stay home and watch the game by myself. I've been out the last few nights, so I'm fine with relaxing today. And since I'm home, I can write before and during the game.
Right now the 49ers are ahead of the Saints 20-14. The Saints have turned the ball over four times, and yet they still stand a chance. I picked the Saints -3.5, but would like to see the 49ers win for a few reasons. The Patriots own the Saints draft pick, so the higher the better. Also, I may be more afraid of the Saints than the Packers in a potential Super Bowl match-up. All the NFC teams will be tough for New England to compete against.
I went back and read my Live Diary from the first Patriots - Broncos game. There are some telling details that led to the result, a 41-23 Patriots victory in Denver on 12/18/11 Box Score.
We'll get to that in a minute. First the inactive list, which include Sebastian Vollmer, Ron Brace and Gary Guyton. So that means rookie Nate Solder is in at RT. He had a good regular reason, and should be up to the challenge today. Brian Dawkins is still out for Denver. That is a significant loss.
Back to the first Patriots - Denver game. What turned out to turn that game will be keys to tonight's playoff match-up.
The Broncos started well, running all over the Patriots. That was disheartening because a lousy as the Patriots defense is, they can usually control the run. The Broncos need to limit the Patriots opportunities by running the ball.
The Patriots won the turnover battle, 3-0. Denver shot themselves in the foot repeatedly, losing fumbles on a sack, run play, and punt return.
This was the game Andre Carter was injured, but Mark Anderson has done well as the #1 DE. Anderson sacked Tebow, forcing a fumble in the last meeting. Forcing Tim Tebow to roll to his right is preferable. Eric Decker is also out with a knee injury.
The FOX pre-game show said that Tim Tebow gave his team a motivational speech about David and Goliath. The one significant difference I can think of is that David could accurately sling a stone. Tebow repeatedly missed open receivers down field in the last match-up. Some he did not see when they were open, some he did not throw to accurately.
The Broncos had no answer for Hernandez and Gronkowski.
Only the Saints and Packers stand a chance in a shoot-out against the Patriots. The blueprint against these three teams is an offense that can keeps Brees / Rodgers / Brady off the field, while the defensive front gets pressure (base D or blitz) while still keeping enough players in coverage. Also win the turnover battle. Not easy to do, but it's what the 49ers are doing to New Orleans right now...
20-17 SF...Frank Gore just ran for a 42 yard gain.
The Saints have five turnovers and are still in the game. 23-17 SF, 7:36 4th Quarter.
Brees to Darren Sproles, 44 yard touchdown. 24-23 Saints. 4:02 remaining. 13 receptions for Sproles today. Would take him over Reggie Bush any day. Great decision by NO.
Biggest moment of Alex Smith's career. Wow. Nice throw and catch by Smith to Vernon Davis. SF needs to kill clock and give David Akres a chance. Not sure why the Eagles let him go. I think he had one bad year (on and off the field) and they didn't want to pay him. Always figured when you have one of the best kickers in the league, you do whatever you can to keep him.
Alex Smith runs a QB draw out of the shotgun / empty backfield (looked like a run out of the Wildcat) for a 28-yard touchdown. They need to go for two. Play is being reviewed, so they have time to set up. Draw to Gore is unsuccessful. 29-24 SF. 2:11 4th Q.
1:37 - Brees to Graham for 66-yard TD. Two-point conversion Brees to Sproles is good 32-29 Saints. Coverage was good. Bad decision by the safety to go after the ball and not tackle the man.
0:09 - Smith to Davis for a touchdown. 36-32 49ers. Final.
The end of this game is one of the most amazing things I have seen in a football game. The announcer (Moose Johnson?) just said the same thing.
Was getting ready to write about Josh McDaniels when the Saints scored to go ahead. Then the 49ers came back. Then the Saints scored again.
So let's get to that. Great move by NE. He'll be the Patriots OC after Bill O'Brien leaves for Penn State, which is a great addition. For now he can study film, look for tendencies, share information about players, and relay information from the press box to coordinators and Bill Belichick during games. Probably spends time preparing Tom Brady during the week.
The Patriots did not break the rules in hiring McDaniels. I'm surprised that it hasn't been done before - or that the NFL never thought to address the scenario. Read that Mike Shannahan changed teams during the season after being fired. That seems like an entirely different scenario.
1st Quarter
15:00 - Looks like Denver won the toss and deferred. Patriots ball on the 20.
14:26 - BJGE gets the first down.
14:02 - Brady to Gronkowski for 16.
13:38 - 43 yard run by Aaron Hernandez...there's your opening wrinkle.
13:09 - Brady to Welker - 7-yard touchdown. 7-0.
12:14 - Patriots forced Tebow right and he overthrew his receiver...what did I tell ya?
12:02 - On the other hand, the Patriots almost had him for a sack and he scrambled for a first down.
11:22 - McGahee makes another good run. The Patriots are trying to clog the middle, but he got away that time.
10:09 - Sack, fumble. Patriots ball. What did I tell ya? Rob Ninkovich got him and Brandon Spikes came up with the ball.
McCourty at safety. Want to get back to that and see what the Patriots do on defense moving forward.
9:12 - Hernandez runs for 5. First down.
7:44 - Brady to Gronkowski for another 16. The Patriots are moving the ball at-will. Denver injury on the field is Quinton Carter. Brady is 7-7 for 69 yards.
7:10 - Danny Woodhead runs for 7.
6:42 - Brady to Gronkowski. Touchdown. 10 yards. Great catch after the bobble. We'll see if it's upheld.
Upheld. Touchdown. 14-0 Patriots.
6:37 - Nice special teams play by Tracy White. Denver takes over at the 17. Announcers say it's windy. I have been to Gillette stadium a few times and the wind can whip around. Comes in from the lighthouse (partially open) end.
5:44 - Tebow to Thomas forward progress was stopped before the fumble. Fair call. 3rd and 1.
4:52 - McGahee for 17. McCourty did not set the edge well and should have stopped him in the backfield. Phil Simms notes what I wrote about the Patriots squeezing the middle. Somewhere one of the teams said that they were trying to "build a wall" to force Tebow to his right. Good strategy if you ask me.
3:22 - Tebow to Thomas was slapped away by sterling Moore. Broncos will punt. Patriots take over at the 13-yard line.
3:14 - BJGE for 5. 3rd and 5.
2:35 - Brady to Welker for first down. Hernandez was also wide open.
2:00 - Brady just gifted one to Denver. Intercepted by Quinton Carter. Overthrew Gronkowski. Just a physical error. Denver ball on the NE 24.
1:12 - Despite the Patriots clogging the middle, the Broncos still insist on running there. 3rd and 3.
0:28 - Tebow to Thomas for 12. First down and goal for Denver.
Patriots 14, Broncos 0.
2nd Quarter
14:55 - McGahee 5 yard touchdown run. 15 yard personal foul on Denver after the play. Patriots will get good field position with Denver kicking into the wind.
Patriots 14, Broncos 7.
Patriots take over at the Denver 40 after a return by Edelman.
14:16 - Gronkowski for 10 after avoiding a tackle after the catch. Quinton Carter hurt again on the play.
Stat that bothers me the most - McGahee 7 runs for 51 yards and a TD.
13:36 - 4th and 6. Patriots will punt. Out at the 5-yard line. Nice play by Zoltan the Punter. Matthew Slater was there, if needed.
May have to check out this movie, Act of Valor.
11:34 - Computer running slow, Broncos go three and out. Will have good field position again after a punt into the wind. Getting a score with field position and the wind at their backs would be good for the Patriots.
You know it's cold out when the cheerleaders are in coats.
10:40 - Brady to Gronkowski. One of the best attributes is the yards they get after contact. Gronkowski got the first down by running through the tackle.
9:31 - When did Hernandez become our best running back? Preceded by Brady to Branch.
7:42 - Brady to Gronkowski - touchdown. 21-7 Patriots.
The video keeps going out on the game and it's getting annoying.
Focus on the Family is running commercials during Broncos games...interesting. That's the Tim Tebow influence.
7:37 - Kyle Arrington almost had a pick-six.
7:29 - Patriots doing a good job against the option. Not sure I would do that if I am Denver. Phil Simms agrees.
6:44 - Denver goes three and out. Tebow missed an open receiver. Phil Simms agrees. I also think there was a hold as Tebow rolled left. Not called. Denver will punt.
5:51 - Brady to Branch. Can't come up with the diving catch. Zoltan the Punter kicks it, fair caught at the 10-yard line. Missed opportunity after good field position. Maybe they get another chance this half.
5:12 - Timeout Denver. Two remaining. Filled by Patriots - Carolina Super Bowl highlights. Good stuff. The winning field goal was set up by Carolina's kick-off going out of bounds. John Kasey, I think. Huge blunder by Carolina allowed the Patriots good field position.
3:16 - Tebow sacked. Take that Tebow 3:16ers.
2:48 - Tebow sacked again. Gerard Warren followed the QB on the option.
2:38 - 4th and 8. Broncos will punt. Patriots will take over at the 28-yard line.
2:22 - Woodhead for 11.
1:57 - Brady to Branch for 61 yard TD. Wow. Nice separation (push) by Branch from the CB makes the play. Phil Simms agrees. 28-7 Patriots.
1:21 - Tebow pass dropped by Ball. 3rd and 5. Patriots could get one more possession. Refs give them the timeout. Looks like Tebow called it after the play clock went to 0:00, but I don't know for sure.
1:16 - Tebow to Thomas incomplete. Bad throw. Denver will punt. Patriots take over at their 42.
Short pass to Welker.
0:38 - Brady to Hernandez to for 20. Incomplete down the sideline to Edelman.
0:10 - Brady to Edelman, out of bounds at the 19.
0:05 - Brady to Gronkowski 19 yard touchdown. Amazing offensive display. 35-7 Patriots.
Brady: 18-25, 246 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT.
Gronkowski: 8 catches, 97 yards, 3 TD.
Halftime Score: 35-7 Patriots.
Away from the tv for most of halftime. Got back to see Shannon Sharpe in the studio. Wish he pulled out his national guard comment. YouTube Clip. I have a long memory.
I have nothing more to add.
3rd Quarter
15:00 - Denver ball to begin the 2nd half. Another nice play by Tracy White.
14:14 - McGahee goes backwards. Stopped by Mayo. Mark Anderson down on the field. That is not good.
13:26 - Edelman returns punt to around Denver 46.
13:18 - Woodhead for 5. Offside by Von Miller. Patriots 1st down.
12:56 - Brady to Welker. First Down.
11:46 - Brady to Hernandez. Touchdown. 42-7.
What does the "Kobe System" think about being a cheating d-bag? F**k you Kobe Bryant.
11:37 - Broncos fumble the return, but recover.
11:26 - Team meeting at the quarterback. Three Patriots swarmed Tebow. Ninkovich, Wilfork, Warren.
10:44 - 4th and 19. Fair catch at the Patriots 48.
Like the AT&T "Stay a step ahead" commercials.
10:01 - A couple of nice runs by Ridley. Bronco injured on the play.
TV shows Tebow's stats: 3-12 for 28 yards. Ugh. Now would be a good time to go watch the SNL skit with Tebow. LINK.
8:30 - Ridley fumbles after the reception. He got walloped. Seems reliable for the most part, but let that one get away on a hard hit. The defender who caused the fumble, Brodrick Bumkley, is injured on the play.
7:24 - Dumb late hit on Patrick Chung gives the Broncos a first down. So it looks like Chung and McCourty may be the safety combo of the future, which means...draft more cornerbacks.
6:40 - 3rd and 13 for Denver. RT Orlando Franklin off with a hand injury.
5:56 - Tebow runs around a lot until Shawn Ellis flattens him. 2nd and 15.
Ball runs for 11. Gets stuffed on the next play. 4th and 3. Tebow rolls left and completes to Royal. Nice play.
Patriots chase Tebow around for a few minutes...
2:19 - 4th and 19. 41-yard field goal attempt. Good. 42-10.
2:00 - BJGE for no gain as Ridley assumes a position on the bench. I'd cut him some slack (after proving a point). He's not a fumbler.
1:32 - Brady to Gronkowski for 20.
1:07 - Branch gets up slowly. Let's avoid significant injury for the rest of this game...as they run a Brady sneak.
Patriots 42, Broncos 10.
4th Quarter
Branch is back.
14:55 - Brady to Gronkowski. Nice play. First and goal.
Hernandez runs. Ball out, Patriots recover. There's a timeout on the field, but it looked like BJGE and Polite in, Hernandez and Welker out.
14:00 - They went heavy to BJGE - goes nowhere.
13:14 - Woodhead draw. Looked like he'd get in, but a nice tackle by Denver.
12:41 - Gostkowski from 20 yards, good. 45-10.
I would sit Brady, Welker, Light, Mankins, Waters, Branch, Big Vince, Anderson, Chung from here on out. Hernandez being worked on at the bench. No need to risk injury to a significant contributor.
11:59 - Tebow completes a pass - Denver handled the blitz to get a first down on 3rd and 8.
9:01 - Denver will have about a 3rd and 6.
8:05 - Tebow to Thomas on 4th and 6. First and goal on the 3. 41 yard play.
They promoed the AFC Championship Game, but I missed what time it's on. Please don't be 10am...
Heard multiple comments that this game is a good Penn State recruiting film...
7:14 - Tebow runs around a lot then has a pass batted down on 4th and goal (Love). Patriots ball.
Do we see Brian Hoyer?
Nope.
6:24 - Brady to Branch, horse-collared. Gets them off the goal-line.
5:52 - Nice little run by BJGE. Let's just get out of this game without injury. 2nd and 1.
4:31 - Looks like the Patriots are content to run for the first couple downs. Kill clock.
2:56 - Brady punts on 3rd down. 48 yard punt. Von Miller lost his cool, fight ensues.
Denver running out the clock.
Game is noon next week. I can get up for that.
Five Stars:
Brady
Gronkowski
Offensive Line - 0 sacks, 0 penalties?
Aaron Hernandez
Kyle Arrington
Patriots 45, Broncos 10 Final.
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