The Colts - Patriots game is at 10am Sunday and not on local tv, so no there won't be a live diary this Sunday. I'll probably watch the game at the MGM sportsbook. I'd have plenty of good material for this game between recent rivals, but instead I'll unload some of it here.
Last I looked the line on the game was Patriots -20. I guessed -18, but I would still take the Patriots if I were betting. The Colts are awful. One of the dirty little secrets is that if Peyton Manning had played, they would still be a bad team. The Colts have been hit by age, player defections, poor free agent signings, and especially poor drafting. They just don't have a lot of talent.
Now Dan Orlovsky is their starting quarterback (the third one used this season), they have a QB with experience going 0-16. Orlovsky last started for the win-less Detroit Lions. And they fired their defensive coordinator, Larry Coyer, who is described as an old guy who the game has passed by. Problems exist on both sides of the ball.
The Patriots offense is clicking. The defense is the problem, but they have had moments of competence and should be aided by the ineptitude of the Colts offense. Plus, the game is in New England in December.
Prediction: Patriots 38, Colts 17.
Peyton Manning got good news the other day, that the spinal fusion has healed and he can increase workouts (link). That's good to hear, but I would still not allow him into a game this season. Anything potentially gained by playing him in a lost season is offset by the risk of further injury. But if he gets medical clearance and the team wants to see him play this season, then perhaps Manning plays. The goal should be to participate in off-season and pre-season workouts and play next year. The Colts can make decisions on Manning's contract, and what to do with the top pick in the draft without Manning appearing in a game this season.
The contract and the draft pick. Big decisions to make in Indy.
If Manning is unable to play, the decision is simple - keep the draft pick and select Andrew Luck.
If Manning comes back at 100%, and potentially has five more productive years ahead of him, the decision is more difficult. Do you keep Manning, the pick, or both?
If the Colts stick with Manning, selecting a player other than Andrew Luck at #1 will probably not be the decision. That would devalue the pick too much.
If the Colts keep Manning and draft Luck, it would be a short-term arrangement - until one player is traded. Too much salary for one position. This is a much different circumstance than Green Bay had with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. Luck would be an NFL-ready #1 overall pick on a bad team, not a late 1st round pick that a good team had the fortune to develop at a much smaller price tag.
Trading the #1 overall pick would provide a lot of pieces that the Colts could use to rebuild in a hurry. The Colts could benefit much like trading Herschel Walker (Cowboys to Vikings), Ricky Williams (Redskins to Saints) and Eli Manning (Chargers to Giants) benefited teams.
The Colts could trade Manning and move forward with Andrew Luck. Luck is one of the rare talents that should be able to start in the NFL on day one, whether it is in Indianapolis, Washington, Miami, or another city. Manning's contract would be a lot to take on, but if he is healthy, teams will do it. I have a hard time seeing Manning in a different uniform, but Joe Montana ended his career in Kansas City...
I would like to see Peyton Manning resume his career as if he was never gone, but not at the expense of of his life after football.
If I'm in charge of the Colts...it all depends on Peyton Manning's health. If he can't play, I draft Andrew Luck to replace him. If Manning is 100%, I look for a "Godfather Offer" and trade the pick.
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