Super Bowl XLVI - Live Diary

Pregame

It is about 45 minutes until the beginning of Super Bowl XVLI, the New England Patriots vs. NY Giants from Indianapolis.

I decided to stay home and watch the game because I can pay better attention here.  If the Patriots were not in the game, I would have gone out somewhere - a sports book or Super Bowl party.  Two weeks and non-stop talk about everything (important and not important) leave most people, including myself, ready for kick-off.  Here are some things that come to mind as game time approaches.

Super Bowl Pick

I'll just get this out of the way now.  Current MGM line.

New England -3 vs. NY Giants 
Under 55.5
Score: 27-20

Last Week: 1-1
Season: 124-129-12

NFL Playoff Picks

New Orleans -3.5 vs. SAN FRANCISCO
NEW ENGLAND -13.5 vs. Denver
BALTIMORE -7.5 vs. Houston
GREEN BAY -7.5 vs. NY Giants

Last Week: 1-3
Season: 122-125-12


College Final Results:


Bowls: 17-17-1
Season: 65-56-3

BCS National Championship

Alabama -1 vs. LSU (at New Orleans)

Bowls to date: 16-16-1

Season: 64-55-3

Wild Card Weekend Picks

I'll get the Wild Card Weekend picks in early.  Gives me all week to change my mind.

HOUSTON -3 vs. Cincinnati
Detroit +11 vs. NEW ORLEANS (Saints win, but don't cover)
Atlanta +3 vs. NY GIANTS (Falcons win, bet ML at +140)
Pittsburgh -8 vs. DENVER

Last Week: 9-6-1
Regular Season: 121-122-12

2012 College Bowl Picks

Penn St. +7 vs. Houston
Georgia -3 vs. Michigan St.
South Carolina -2.5 vs. Nebraska
Florida -2 vs. Ohio St.
Oregon -5.5 vs. Wisconsin

Oklahoma St. -3.5 vs. Stanford
Michigan -3 vs. Virginia Tech
Clemson -3 vs. West Virginia
Kansas St. +7.5 vs. Arkansas
Pittsburgh -3 vs. SMU
Arkansas St. -1 vs. Northern Illinois

Edit: After the first five games on 1/2.
Bowls to Date: 16-12
Season: 64-51-2

NFL Picks

PHILADELPHIA -8 vs. Washington
Atlanta -11 vs. TAMPA BAY
San Francisco -10.5 vs. ST. LOUIS
Chicago +1 vs. MINNESOTA
GREEN BAY +3.5 vs. Detroit
NY GIANTS -3 vs. Dallas
NEW ORLEANS -8 vs. Carolina
Tennessee -2.5 vs. HOUSTON
Baltimore -2 vs. CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh -7 vs. CLEVELAND
Indianapolis +4 vs. JACKSONVILLE
MIAMI -2 vs. NY Jets
NEW ENGLAND -10.5 vs. Buffalo
OAKLAND -3 vs. San Diego
Kansas City +3.5 vs. DENVER
Seattle +3 vs. ARIZONA

Last Week: 4-12
Season:  112-116-11

NFL Picks

Thought I may have another good week before Baltimore and Pittsburgh let me down.  I'll take those losses because they mean the Patriots are currently the top seed in the AFC.

Houston -6 vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Oakland +2 vs. KANSAS CITY
Denver -2.5 vs. BUFFALO
TENNESSEE -7 vs. Jacksonville
Arizona +4 vs. CINCINNATI
NEW ENGLAND -9.5 vs. Miami
Cleveland +13 vs. BALTIMORE
NY JETS -3 vs. NY Giants
WASHINGTON -6 vs. Minnesota
Tampa Bay +7.5 vs. CAROLINA
St. Louis +16 vs. PITTSBURGH
DETROIT -2.5 vs. San Diego
San Francisco -2.5 vs. SEATTLE
DALLAS -1.5 vs. Philadelphia
Chicago +13.5 vs. GREEN BAY
NEW ORLEANS -6.5 vs. Atlanta

Last Week: 8-7-1
Season: 108-104-11

College Bowl Picks

Here are the rest of the pre-New Year's Bowls.  The New Year's Bowls through the BCS National Championship game will be posted around December 29.

Marshall +4 vs. Florida International

TCU - 9.5 vs. Louisiana Tech

Boise State -13.5 vs. Arizona State

Southern Mississippi -6.5 vs. Nevada

North Carolina +4.5 vs. Missouri

Purdue -2.5 vs. Western Michigan

NC State -2 vs. Louisville

Toledo -3 vs. Air Force

Texas -3 vs. California

Notre Dame +3 vs. Florida State

Baylor -9.5 vs. Washington

BYU - 2.5 vs. Tulsa
Rutgers -2 vs. Iowa State
Mississippi State -6.5 vs. Wake Forest
Iowa +14 vs. Oklahoma
Texas A&M -10 vs Northwestern
Georgia Tech -3 vs. Utah
Illinois -2.5 vs. UCLA
Vanderbilt -1 vs. Cincinnati
Auburn -1.5 vs. Virginia

Bowls to Date: 1-2
Season: 48-39-2

Patriots - Broncos Live Diary

Pregame

What looked like an absolutely wretched group of early games has turned out to be pretty interesting.  I'm watching the Chiefs try to put away the undefeated Packers.  The score is 12-7 and the Chiefs are on the Packers 5 yard line.  They have moved the ball, but not been able to convert to touchdowns.

4:51 - The Packers are in real trouble now.Jackie Battle rushes in from 1 yard for the touchdown.  19-7 Chiefs.

And the Colts are leading Tennessee 20-13.

My predictions from a few weeks ago were that the Packers do not go undefeated (regular season) and the Colts remain win-less.  So I'll be right on GB, wrong on Indianapolis.

1:47 - Packers scored, but now the Chiefs are killing the clock.  TV is reviewing an earlier play by KC that could have been ruled a touchback.  I would have challenged if I was Green Bay.

1:34 - Chiefs have been running all over GB at the end, so the Chiefs should now be able to run out the clock.

Nice job Romeo.  Final: Chiefs 19   Packers 14.

Now the question is, could this loss be the best thing to happen to Green Bay?  Maybe.  I don't feel like giving that much thought right now.

Didn't think Buffalo would roll over at home against Miami.  Everything else makes sense.

Patriots - Broncos should be starting in a couple minutes.

For the record, I pick Patriots -7.5.  Patriots 30  Broncos 13.

So let the Tebowing begin...

Thursday Night Football Pick

Will do the rest of the NFL and early bowl picks soon.

Jacksonville +12 vs. ATLANTA

Falcons win, but do not cover...

Last Week: 11-5
Season: 100-97-10

Top Ten Reasons San Diego State and Boise State are joining the Big East

The media is reporting that The Big East Conference will be adding five schools, including San Diego State and Boise State for football only.

Right off the top, this makes perfect sense.  But all joking in place, here are the Top Ten Reasons San Diego State and Boise State are joining the Big East.

10. Schools hope to supplement current endowment with frequent flyer miles.

9.  San Diego State is tired of all the seventy-degree, cold weather football games in November and December.

8.  Boise State aspires to one day have a "last place in the Big East" caliber basketball program.

7.  Schools get to renew their long-standing football rivalries with Rutgers and UConn.

6.  The SEC would not take them.

5.  Nobody studies geography in college anymore.

4.  Hope to expand current recruiting base to football hotbeds such as Maine and Vermont.

3.  Southwest flies west to most Big East destinations, with only a short layover - in London.

2.  Should feel right at home after the Big East rightfully loses its automatic BCS bid.

and the #1 reason San Diego State and Boise State are joining the Big East is...

1.  Always wanted to compete for a berth in the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium, against the 8th place team from the Big 12.

College Bowl Match-ups

College bowl match-ups were announced today.  I'll probably break the picks up into before and after New Year's Day games.  Before that, here are a few first impressions from looking at the schedule.

Manning, Luck, and the #1 Draft Pick

The Colts - Patriots game is at 10am Sunday and not on local tv, so no there won't be a live diary this Sunday. I'll probably watch the game at the MGM sportsbook.  I'd have plenty of good material for this game between recent rivals, but instead I'll unload some of it here.

Football Picks

NFL


Philadelphia -3 vs. SEATTLE
BUFFALO -1.5 vs. Tennessee
CHICAGO -7 vs. Kansas City
Oakland +3 vs. MIAMI
PITTSBURGH -6.5 vs. Cincinnati
Baltimore -6..5 vs. CLEVELAND
NY Jets -3 vs. WASHINGTON
Atlanta -2.5 vs. HOUSTON
Carolina +3.5 vs. TAMPA BAY
NEW ORLEANS -9 vs. Detroit
Denver +1.5 vs. MINNESOTA
SAN FRANCISCO -13 vs. St. Louis
Dallas -4.5 vs ARIZONA
Green Bay -7 vs. NY GIANTS
NEW ENGLAND -20 vs. Indianapolis
San Diego -2.5 vs. JACKSONVILLE

Last Week: 11-4-1
Season: 81-85-9

College


OKLAHOMA STATE -3 vs. Oklahoma
BAYLOR -2.5 vs. Texas
LSU -13.5 vs. Georgia (at Atlanta)
Virginia Tech -7 vs. Clemson (at Charlotte)
Michigan St. +9.5 vs Wisconsin (at Indianapolis)
Houston -12.5 vs. Southern Mississippi (at Houston)

Last Week: 3-4
Season: 43-34-2

Live Diary: NY Giants at Saints

Pregame

I was going to play poker tonight, but I just ate dinner and decided that I don't really feel like playing now.  My rule is, if I don't feel like playing, then I don't play.  Simple as that.  I have enough opportunity that I don't need to force myself to go play poker when I don't really want to play.

So this will be a little different.  A live diary for a non-Patriots game.  I like football and watch a lot of games.  But a lot of the time it is background noise.  The teams I really follow are the Patriots (watched most every game for 15 years), and seen all but one Arkansas Razorbacks game this season.

I am a big fan of Wendi Nix.  Used to like her on the news and radio in Boston.  Now she does a lot of studio and sideline work for ESPN.  Is on the sideline tonight in New Orleans.  Did not know she used to be married to Ben Cherington.

Chris Berman's voice makes my head hurt.

Trying to save any comments about the Giants and Saints for game action, since I'm not sure if I can pull off a decent commentary on teams I am less familiar with.  Boston teams, no problem.

Let's get this one out of the way.  CBS in Vegas switched off the Patriots blowout of the Eagles in time to show    the Denver Tebows comeback over the Lame Duck Chargers.  I texted a friend when it happened - they did a close-up for about five seconds of the Chargers kicker peeing on the sideline.  Won't link video, but deadspin.com had it up about 10 minutes after it occurred.

Archie Manning is doing the pregame intro.  He played for the 'Aints and his son is the Giants QB.

Neat video on Sean Payton, Drew Brees, and offensive coordinator meeting to discuss play calling the day before game.  It just gets me thinking - you want to know how successful any football team is, watch the quarterback.  Watch how he play calls, controls the action before the snap, makes protection and audible calls, handles pressure with subtle movements like stepping up in the pocket, passes the ball, runs or throws it away if necessary.

Game on.

In hindsight

Was out most of the night playing poker, so I woke up in time to watch the Patriots thump the Eagles.  Here are a few things that I know, wish I knew, or wish I did in hindsight.

1.  Won $150 playing poker.  Wish I left hours earlier when I was up close to $300.  I'm usually good at that, but thought I could make more.  Ended up giving some of it back.

2.  The easiest bet on the board this weekend was Virginia Tech -4.5 at Virginia.  I even helped talk a rich guy from overseas into making a very big bet on the game.  Final score was 38-0.  I did not bet the game, or even include it in my weekly picks.  Dumb.

3.  I've been saying UNLV is good.  Never thought they'd beat #1 North Carolina.  On the other hand, I've lost the ability to argue or surprise people by saying they're a good team because now everybody knows.

4.  Maybe I should have gone to the game.  Oh well.

5.  The NBA Lockout appears to be ending, with games beginning on Christmas.  The Celtics will play the Knicks.  I haven't missed the NBA (and wouldn't if the whole season were cancelled).  I've always been a Celtics fan, but notice I don't write a lot about basketball.  The teams and games boost the economies and many in the community, so for that reason, I'm glad there will be NBA basketball.

6.  Common opinion is that the reduced schedule helps an older team like the Celtics.  We all know the "Big 4", but who else makes up the roster?  FYI - this isn't what it's going to be.

7.  The game I debated the most was Chicago +5 at Oakland.  Ended up being a push.  Wonder what the line will be for the Colts at Patriots next week.  -18 or so?

8.  Bob Costas did a halftime commentary on touchdown celebrations.  To paraphrase (pretty closely), "hey knuckleheads, is it too much to ask that you confine your stupidity to situations that don't end up directly hurting your team" (roll Steve Johnson and DeShaun Jackson highlights).  In my mind, it needs to go one of two ways.  Teams need to tell their players to stop getting 15 yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalties when they know they're going to be penalized.  The other solution - allow touchdown celebrations that are not direct taunting an opponent.

9.  I've not shaved in about a month, so I have a little bit of a beard going.  It doesn't look horrible.  I have only trimmed it a little, so that it looks fine.  But I'm not used to it being as long.  In hindsight, maybe I should have shaved.

10.  This isn't hindsight, more a thought.  I wonder if Peyton Manning should play football again.  I am very much not a Colts fan, but that doesn't matter to my opinion.  If he could sustain another significant neck injury, or risk diminishing the quality of his life after football, I'd like to see him retire as one of the best ever and not take that chance.  My guess is that he and his family understand the situation.  I don't know details, but I'm not hearing anything yet that convinces me that he can or should come back.

11.  In hindsight, why am I watching the Steelers - Chiefs game?  This is horrible (changes channel).  I don't like the Cleveland Show (changes channel again).  An ESPN documentary on Herschel Walker (puts remote control down).

12.  I generally don't think twice about holding the door open for somebody when I have the chance.  In hindsight, holding the door open for a prostitute in the middle of the night only led to an unwelcome solicitation.

NFL Predictions

Playoffs

NFC:

1. Green Bay Packers
2. San Francisco 49ers
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. Chicago Bears
6. Atlanta Falcons

AFC:

1. New England Patriots
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Houston Texans
4. Oakland Raiders
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
6. NY Jets

Hold on to playoff spots with backup quarterbacks


Chicago and Houston


Step up down the stretch


Dallas, Atlanta, Oakland, NY Jets


Fade down the stretch


Detroit, New York Giants and Cincinnati

Don't do enough to get back into contention


San Diego and Philadelphia


Perfect Seasons

Will Green Bay go undefeated: No
Will Indianapolis go winless: Yes

Awards


MVP - Aaron Rodgers
Defensive Player of the Year - Jared Allen
Coach of the Year - Mike McCarthy (voters could choose be Jim Harbaugh)
Rookie of the Year - Andy Dalton (voters could choose Cam Newton)

What coaches will/should be fired?


Washington - Mike Shanahan
San Diego - Norv Turner
Miami - Tony Sporano
Jacksonville - Jack Del Rio
Indianapolis - Jim Caldwell (I might give him a pass, but a win-less coach has to make the list)

With the first pick in the 2012 NFL Draft...


The Indianapolis Colts select Andrew Luck, Quarterback, Stanford.

We have a trade...


Who might make a "Godfather Offer" to the Colts for the first pick:  Miami Dolphins or Washington Redskins.

Opinion: Urban Meyer to Ohio State?

If Urban Meyer is offered the Ohio State job, then he'll "have a decision to make".

The only sense I can make of this is that, if Meyer wants to be the next head coach at Ohio State, then he will be their next head coach.

That may depend on health, family, and NCAA sanctions at OSU.  Meyer's health and family, I know nothing about.  Hopefully their both great.  But why else would this be on the news, reported by his employer, ESPN, when Meyer could simply say, "I have a job. Ohio State has an interim coach.  I have no comment at this time"?

Would he be a candidate for an NFL job?  San Diego?  Jacksonville?

The NCAA sanctions part:  The NCAA should come down hard on Ohio State.  They cheated, have for years, and lied, misled and withheld information from the NCAA in order to keep players eligible and go to the Sugar Bowl.

Ohio State should have reported violations, ruled players ineligible, and withdrawn from bowl consideration.  Jim Tressel protected the program, enabling them to go to and win the Sugar Bowl.  Tressel paid for his transgression, having been fired as head coach.  Terelle Pryor is now on a bench in the NFL.  The university will learn its fate soon.  That fate should include post-season ineligibility, making the job a little less appealing, but perhaps not a deal-breaker for Meyer.

My guess is, Ohio State offers the job. Meyer accepts.  The team is ineligible to play in a bowl next season.

Life goes on, and soon Ohio State will be back to winning conference championships and competing for BCS Championships.

Monday Night Football: Patriots - Chiefs Live Diary

Pregame


The ESPN pre-game show just finished talking about the "best team in the AFC".  The conclusions I draw are that they are all flawed, injuries have made a big difference, and the best team may not end up with the top seed (or even a bye).

I hate listening to Chris Berman.  Please never let him near a baseball commentator's booth ever again.  That being said, he made a comment I very much agree with.  No matter how flawed the Patriots defense is, and that Pittsburgh, Baltimore, or Houston may be a better team; the Patriots may end up with the #1 seed in the AFC.  Reason: the schedule is the easiest in the NFL from here on out.

I have a post called, "NFL Predictions" that I have not published.  Part if it is predicting the playoff seeds.  Here is the AFC prediction;

1. New England Patriots
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Houston Texans
4. Oakland Raiders
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
6. NY Jets